As we step into 2026, the fraud landscape continues to evolve at pace. New payment methods, regulatory shifts and emerging technologies are reshaping how consumers transact and how fraudsters exploit vulnerabilities. From agentic commerce and crypto adoption to the growing complexity of money mule networks, financial institutions (FIs) face into a growing list of new challenges to protect customers while maintaining seamless experiences. What once were isolated risks confined to specific channels are now converging, demanding cross-channel solutions, global collaboration and sharper decisioning frameworks.
The Importance of Cross-Channel Risk Decisions and Models
The number and variety of payment options continue to expand, with growing competition around not just how you choose to pay but also how each payment is initiated. This year alone, we saw CurvePay launched on iOS to challenge Apple Pay in Europe, Pay by Bank integrated into more checkout journeys and the emergence of agentic commerce. These innovations highlight the rapid pace of change across the payment's ecosystem.
As these trends accelerate, fraud prevention teams face mounting pressure to adopt solutions that can operate seamlessly across the entire spectrum of payment options. The lines between the types of transactions taking place are increasingly blurred, with activity traditionally confined to one channel now appearing in another. This convergence introduces new risks and complicates detection, especially when customer signals are limited or fragmented. Without full context, institutions risk making sub-optimal decisions. These trends in turn will drive more fraud prevention teams to demand solutions that can operate across the entire spectrum of payment options.
The consequences of getting it wrong are clear: higher false positives, weaker detection rates and ultimately less satisfied customers. To stay ahead, fraud teams will embrace cross-channel risk models that provide a holistic view of customer behavior and transaction patterns. Only by doing so can they balance innovation with security and deliver the frictionless experiences customers expect.
Cryptocurrencies: An Emerging Battle to Balance Risks and Rewards
With global crypto currency ownership at record highs, further regulatory clarity around stablecoins - such as the Genius Act, which became law in the US in July - and ongoing announcements from “traditional” FIs on their crypto currency strategies, a perfect storm is forming. Scammers are increasingly targeting prospective investors eager to participate in this growing market.
As public awareness rises and longstanding brands make access easier, the need for specialized and targeted controls becomes critical. These measures must address not only scams but also new account takeover scenarios. In turn, this will drive calls for clearer consumer protection rules and spark a broader debate over liability when things go wrong.
The Growing Divergence of Money Mule Activities
In recent years, more and more fraud teams we speak to globally have become concerned with money mule activities. Whether driven by regulations, reputational risk or simply the availability of real-time tools, this is leading to a growing desire to intervene and stop the flow of illicit funds, going beyond merely identifying and reporting them.
This, of course, is not without difficulty. Effective intervention requires not only the right technology but also specific treatments, operational processes, and strong legal and compliance oversight. The challenge lies in balancing these elements while still maintaining efficiency and accuracy.
The variety of methods FIs encounter in this space is vast. Factors such as whether the client opened the account, their level of knowledge or involvement, tenure of the account and the mechanisms of money movement all play a role. As a result, clients experience completely different symptoms of this larger problem, and when combined with the advancements of cryptocurrencies and cross-channel payments, further divergence becomes inevitable.
Global Problems Require Global Solutions
In the past the consensus of opinion tended to be that a specific FI’s fraud problems, distinct control framework and unique dataset meant the most effective fraud solutions were focused purely on them and relied firmly on their own data. It was perhaps useful to hear about what others were experiencing, but given the differences in businesses, customers, objectives and constraints, those insights were not always seen as relevant and actions taken not practical.
Over time, however, opinions have shifted. Increasingly, attitudes have changed to recognize that seeing a broader picture, beyond the “four walls” of what a single bank can observe, is critical. This shift reflects a growing awareness that fraud cannot be tackled in isolation.
Several factors have contributed to this change: the emergence of privacy-preserving technologies, new dimensions of risk monitoring, and the cross pollination of ideas from application, payment and card fraud monitoring. Above all, there is now a growing acceptance that global problems require global solutions. We believe 2026 will mark the tipping point for this view.
Looking Ahead
Fraud in 2026 will not be defined by a single trend, but by the convergence of many. Payment innovations blur traditional boundaries, cryptocurrencies open new doors for both opportunity and exploitation, and money mule activities diversify in ways that defy one-size-fits-all solutions. At the same time, the industry is recognizing that global problems require global responses, as collaboration, shared intelligence and privacy-preserving technologies will be essential to staying ahead.
The institutions that thrive will be those that embrace adaptability, invest in holistic risk models and view fraud prevention as a strategic, proactive endeavour.